PROGRAM

Seminar #1 • 4 NOVEMBER 2024 • 12H30 - 14H00 • Room 8F - ULL

Seminar #1	Justices of the Peace: Legal Foundations of the Industrial Revolution (with Tim Besley, Dan Bogart, and Jonathan Chapman).
Meet and Greet	13H30 - 14H00
Speaker	Professor Nuno Palma Department of Economics • University of Manchester Instituto de Ciências Sociais • Universidade de Lisboa
Overview	What is the historical connection between legal institutions and economic development? How did the "Justices of the Peace" influence the economic growth that culminated in the Industrial Revolution? These are some of the questions Professor Nuno Palma will address as he presents a detailed analysis of the impact of local justice administration on strengthening institutional stability, protecting property, and enhancing governmental efficiency. An essential study for understanding the legal pillars that shaped England's economic transformation.

Seminar #2 • 2 DECEMBER 2024 • 12H30 - 13H30 • Room 8F - ULL

Seminar #2	Dams, irrigation and regional development in Southwestern Iberia, 1950-2025.
Speaker	Professor Carlos Manuel Faísca Centro de Estudos Interdisciplinares – CEIS20 Universidade de Coimbra
Overview	The southwestern interior of Iberia, historically poor and sparsely populated, has relied on irrigation for economic growth, especially in dry areas. Major dam and irrigation projects began in the mid-20th century, aiming to support agriculture, industry, and tourism. However, while some regions saw positive impacts, many local communities experienced little economic or social change. Carlos Manuel Faísca will present his project that seeks to understand why development succeeded in some areas and not others, and to assess the future viability of these irrigation systems in light of climate change, with the goal of guiding better regional development policies.

Seminar #3 • 10 FEBRUARY 2025 • 12H30 - 13H30 • Room 8F - ULL

Seminar #3	Climate Shocks and Agricultural Change: the case of early sixteenth-century Portugal.
Speaker	António Castro Henriques Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Universidade de Lisboa
Overview	This paper argues that severe droughts in the winters of 1520–1522 triggered a shift in Portuguese agriculture from wheat and cattle to maize cultivation, described as the transition "from horn to corn" (Henriques and Reis 2016). I begin by testing the severity of these droughts using historical climate data, grain prices, and source criticism. Next, I analyze panel data on prices, rents, and economic returns, demonstrating how perceptions of reduced wheat production influenced this shift. Finally, I present new evidence showing that maize began spreading in northern irrigated areas in the early 1530s, earlier than previously suggested. Instead of the result of a gradual, Boserupian response to population growth, the spread of corn at the expense of wheat and cattle cannot be understood without a severe climatic shocks.

Seminar #4 • 10 MARCH 2025 • 12H30 - 13H30 • Room 8F - ULL

Seminar #4	The fertility impact of mass return migration
Speaker	Velichka Dimitrova University College London
Overview	Return migration is common, yet identifying its impact is difficult because of selection and confounding factors in destination and source countries. A unique natural experiment—the Portuguese Revolution of 1974—ended the Colonial War and triggered a mass exodus of colonists from the former overseas territories. Drawing on a new municipal panel dataset from several archival sources for Portugal between 1940 and 1990, I examine the fertility impact of return migration using event study and instrumental variable methodologies. A percentage point increase in the number of returnees per capita resulted in 1.3 to 1.7 additional births per thousand women, driven primarily by nonmigrant fertility. The main explanation is the returning men of prime reproductive age who alleviated demographic imbalances caused by male-biased migration and war deployment, and contributing to family formation within existing marriages. The age-specific labor market analysis reveals that younger women were disproportionately affected, with many leaving the labor force, leading to an average decline of 5-8 percentage points in labor force participation among young native women.

Seminar #5 • 7 APRIL 2025 • 12H30 - 13H30 • Room 8F - ULL

Seminar #5	The Fraudster and the Bank (with Luís Costa and Nuno Palma).
Speaker	Professor Renato Pistola Instituto de Ciências Sociais Universidade de Lisboa
Overview	An historical crime episode provides evidence on the real effects of money. In 1925 Portugal, a fraudster exogenously increased money supply to the tune of 1% of nominal GDP. This corresponded to 4% of broad money (M2) and 20% of the monetary base (M0). The fraud remained operational for almost a year. We show that during that time, consumer prices did not change, but there was a large effect on financial prices. Remarkably, real economic activity increased rapidly. Other Western European countries did not exhibit similar patterns at the same time.

Seminar #6 • 5 MAY 2025 • 12H30 - 13H30 • Room 8F - ULL

Seminar #6	Trading Choices (with Lucas Dyskant and Bruno Sultanum)
Speaker	André Castro Silva Associate Professor at Nova School of Business and Economics
Overview	We propose a model to study the choice between trading mechanisms in over-the-counter asset markets. In the model, trade occurs through dealers as principal inventory trades or agency risk-free trades, or through all-to-all (A2A) customer-customer transactions. We show the possibility of multiple equilibria. Equilibrium changes might imply substantial changes in A2A trade activity and dealer intermediation. Increased agency trading is compatible with steady activity in A2A markets. The model explains three facts about corporate bond markets following the Dodd-Frank Act: (1) an increase in A2A and agency trades, (2) longer trade execution, and (3) a decrease in measured illiquidity.

Seminar #7 • OCTOBER 2025 • 12H30 - 13H30 • Room 8F - ULL

Seminar #7	TBA
Speaker	-
Overview	-

Organisation

Professor Guilherme Lambais
Deputy Director of the Centre for Research in Economics and Comparative Development (CIEDEC)
Coordinator of the Economics degree at the Faculty of Economics and Business Sciences
Universidade Lusíada [Lisbon]

Notícia

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